
4. FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION, Air Pollution & Climate
Change
4C Levels of CO2
in atmospheres, global warming - climate change, reducing our carbon
footprint from fossil fuel burning
It is
estimated that without the 'insulating' effect of carbon dioxide gas and
water vapour, the surface temperature of the Earth would be ~30oC
lower!, but we may be overdoing the warming effect!
Doc Brown's chemistry revision notes: GCSE chemistry, IGCSE chemistry, O level
& ~US grades 9-10 school science courses or equivalent for ~14-16 year old
chemistry
students
Over the recent past years the Arctic region has
experienced the greatest melting of sea ice and record temperature highs and the greatest recorded melting of Greenland's glaciers. The carbon
dioxide level is steadily increasing year by year. Whatever is causing
climate change, global warming is happening.
Anthropogenic
means any
environmental change or pollution due to human activity.
All my
GCSE level chemistry revision
notes
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organic chemistry revision notes
All my advanced A level organic chemistry notes
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Use your
mobile phone or ipad etc. in 'landscape'
orientation
This is a BIG
website, you need to take time to explore it [ SEARCH
BOX]
Sub-index for this page
(a)
Some of the latest evidence of global
warming
(b) Introduction
to global warming
- impacts, climate change,
carbon footprint from fossil fuel burning
(c)
The EVIDENCE for global warming and rising CO2
levels in the atmosphere and ocean
(d)
What do scientists and politicians believe?!
(e)
What exactly is the 'Greenhouse Effect' and what contributes
to it?
(f)
What is our 'carbon footprint'? and ways of reducing it to minimise global warming
(g) Playing around
with graphs and consequences
of climate change - posing a few questions?
(h)
Further environmental, social and
economic discussion points - a brainstorm bullet
points of global warming consequences! (follows on from
(g)
See also
4A
Fossil fuel air pollution:
incomplete combustion, carbon monoxide & soot particulates
4B
Pollution, Accidents
and Economic Aspects of the Petrochemical Industry
4D Fossil fuel air pollution - effects of sulfur oxides
and nitrogen oxides
and
A
local acid rain project!!!
4C
(a) Some of the latest evidence of global
warming
The current global picture
The global temperature change
diagram from 1966 to 2019 shows the greatest warming is in the northern region
of the Arctic Circle (from NASA-GISS data June 2020).
The average global temperature has
risen by ~1oC, but in the Arctic it has risen by 4oC.
TOP OF PAGE
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4C
(b) Introduction to global warming - impacts climate change,
carbon footprint from fossil fuel burning

A big contributor to our 'carbon footprint', a
conventional fossil fuel power station in Yorkshire, where the last deep coal
mine in the UK closed in December 2015.

A good way of reducing our 'carbon footprint', windfarm
of wind turbines in Co. Durham, a county once permeated by dozens of coal mines
! We know that an increase in average
global temperature is a major cause of climate change, and, whatever
the cause, we are
not sure about is the consequences! Most scientists think the
current pattern of global warming is due to increasing carbon dioxide
levels in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. Possible
consequences are ...
-
The potential
effects of global climate change include eg sea level rise from
melting polar ice, which may cause flooding
of low lying land and
increased coastal erosion.
-
More frequent and severe storm
destruction leading to infra-structure disruption e.g. electrical
power-lines affected, road and rail travel disrupted. There is some
statistical evidence for this in crease in more violent weather activity.
-
Changes in the amount, timing and distribution of
rainfall - increase in deserts - regions becoming more hotter and drier - more
arid - drought or just the opposite with flooding from much heavier rainfall
than expected- some countries are experience unusually hot and dry periods.
-
The local climate temperature (too low/high) and water
(too little/much) stress for humans and
wildlife.
-
3. and 4. result in changes in the food producing capacity of some
regions by disruption/reduction of agriculture.
-
Changes to the distribution of wildlife species
- there is evidence that species of various animals are moving north in
north-west Europe (e.g. the UK) as the overall climate gets milder.
-
BUT, its very difficult to predict if and
when these extreme weather events happen, therefore its difficult to predict
their effects and where and how many people might be affected.
-
Historically we have limited
data for long-term trends -
see section about past atmospheres.
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4C (c)
The EVIDENCE for global warming and rising CO2 levels in the
atmosphere and ocean
RISING CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS - greenhouse gases -
climate change - global warming
-
GRAPH A
(see extra data below)
-
The graph shows the steady rise in the concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 1959-2010 as measured at the Mauna Loa mountain top observatory on
the Pacific island of Hawaii.
-
The rise in carbon dioxide level
correlates well with the increasing amounts of carbon dioxide produced
from fossil fuel combustion as more countries become more industrialised
and consumers demand more electricity etc.!!!
-
This represents the highest
carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere for at least 250,000 years. This
is known because trapped air bubbles in ice cores from the arctic
regions can be analysed to obtain their % composition. Every year snow
falls form a new layer that become compacted into thin layers of ice
which become buried beneath successive yearly precipitations so a long
geological record of the earth's atmosphere is preserved.
-
It is a good
base-line for our planet because it is well away from any industry
involving fossil fuel burning.
-
The concentration of
CO2 is in ppm (parts per million).
-
1ppm means 1 in 106 of air molecules is CO2. In % volume terms, 1 ppm = 100 x 1 / 106 = 0.0001%.
-
The graph shows that
the CO2 has risen from 0.0316% (316 ppm) in 1959 to 0.0378%
(378 ppm) in 2004.
-
I haven't updated the graph
for 2005-2015 data yet, but the carbon dioxide concentration continues to
rise at about 2 ppm per year.
-
The latest data I've got from the Mauna Loa website is a s follows: Year and ppm CO2 concentration
-
2005 379.8, 2006 381.9, 2007 383.8, 2008 385.6, 2009 387.4
-
2010 389.9 2011 391.7, 2012 393.9, 2013 396.5, 2014 398.7
-
2015 400.8, 2016 404.3 2017 406.6, 2018 408.6, 2019 411.9
-
2020 414.2, 2021 416.3 (forecast)
-
In the last hundred years the carbon dioxide level has grown from ~300 ppm to >400 ppm.
-
There has been a 50% increase in CO2 levels since 1750-1800.
-
This doesn't seem
much of an increase, BUT on a global scale, the extra 'Greenhouse CO2
Gas' could have drastic consequences (see next paragraph), but the
computer model predictions have a high degree of uncertainty.
-
Based on peer-reviewed evidence,
most, but not all, scientists believe that human activities will
cause the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere to increase at the
surface and that this will result in global climate change.
-
There is good evidence for human
activity causing climate change when you consider the correlation
between the ever increasing atmospheric level of carbon dioxide, the
ever increasing consumption of fossil fuels and an overall small rise
temperature over the past few decades in particular. Note also the rise
in world population.
-
Graph B1
-
GRAPH B1 The steady rise in carbon dioxide
concentration in the atmosphere, particularly through and after the
industrial revolution in the 19th century and into the 20th and 21st
century.
-
Data
Source - NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/
-
Prior to any
growth in industries using fossil fuels the baseline carbon
dioxide concentration was about 277 ppm 1000 years ago (277
parts per million means 277 CO2 molecules in a
mixture a million air molecules).
-
Rose
steadily through industrial revolution but as the world economy
gets going after the 2nd World War the rise in CO2 concentration
starts to become much more significant.
-
Except in
recent times, the CO2 concentration had reached a maximum
of 300 ppm over the last 400 000 years.
-
-
-
Graph B2
-
Graph
B2: The rise in
use of fossil fuel use in terms of CO2 emission 1850-2003
-
This graph
parallels the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration
in general but seems to be far more significant after the 2nd
World War.
-
The dips
usually (all cases?) coincide with periods of world economic
recession e.g. the 1930's and the early 1980's when less fuel is
burned by the power and manufacturing industries.
-
The steady
rise in 'extra' carbon dioxide, presumably from increased fossil
fuel burning, is cited as evidence for its contribution to
global warming irrespective.
-
-
-
GRAPH
C The
unfortunate steady rise of coal, oil and natural gas use, though its good to see the
rise in hydroelectric power and biofuels.
-
GRAPH D
The
steady rise in population, steady rise in energy demand!
-
GRAPH E1
-
GRAPH E2
-
Graphs E1 and E2 (E2 is the
latest, and the most worrying graph of global warming) show the
small, but significant global temperature rise through the 20th century
and continuing into the 21st century.
-
However, it is difficult to
accurately computer
model such complex systems as global climate change.
-
This is partly due to uncertainties
caused by the location where carbon dioxide and temperature (in
particular) measurements are taken and extra problems of historical
accuracy.
-
Inevitably this leads to simplified models with
large margins of uncertainty, allowing speculation and opinions
presented in the media that may be based on only parts of the evidence
and which may be biased to suite an individual's point of view!
-
Graph F
-
GRAPH F
From analysis of atmospheric gases
trapped in ice core samples drilled out of the Greenland ice-cap you can
estimate the concentration of carbon dioxide over the past 400,000
years. From this NASA graph you can see there has been considerable
oscillation between 'highs and lows' in the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the air. BUT, there has been quite an acceleration in the
rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in recent times, which is
higher than its ever been in the past 400,000 years.
-
Graph G
-
GRAPH G
Paralleling the oscillation of carbon
dioxide you see the temperature over hundreds of thousands of years
shows a similar oscillation and the two are believed to be connected. The
temperature anomaly is based on the difference between the average
temperature around 1950.
-
Graph H
-
GRAPH H
The temperature anomaly looks even
more dramatic if you focus on the last 1500 years and look what has
happened over the past decade.
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4C (d)
What do scientists and politicians believe!?
You should appreciate that based
on peer-reviewed evidence, most scientists believe that human
activities are causing a small rise in the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere
and surface and that this will result in global climate
change.
-
BUT, it is difficult to model such complex systems as
global climate change. This leads to simplified models allowing speculation
and opinions presented in the media that may be based on only parts
of the evidence and which may be biased - political and economic
interests may not always present the whole and balanced evidence story!
-
Generally speaking politicians world-wide
agree on the central theory that global warming is linked to fossil fuel
burning, but action may be slow!
2nd BUT: Some things seem reasonable to
accept based on the evidence presented by scientists, and, politicians
adopt policies to deal with climate change and its consequences ...
-
An increase in average global
temperature is a major cause of climate change.
-
The potential effects of global
climate change which be small or large, include:
-
a rise in sea level, which may cause
flooding of low lying land and increased coastal erosion,
-
more frequent and severe storms
causing more erosion and destruction of coastal communities,
-
uncertain changes in the amount,
timing and distribution of rainfall,
-
more temperature and water stress for
humans, agricultural systems and wildlife habitats,
-
changes in the food producing
capacity of some regions - temperature and water supply affected,
-
changes to the distribution of
wildlife species as ecosystems are affected the ambient temperature
and water supply.
-
So, make sure you are able to discuss
the scale, risk and environmental implications of global climate change
and long after you leave school, college or university!.
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4C (e)
What exactly is the 'Greenhouse Effect' and what contributes to it?
It should be clearly stated at the start of
this section that the greenhouse effect is a completely natural process that
warms the Earth’s surface. When the Sun’s energy enters the Earth’s
atmosphere, some of it is reflected back to space and the rest is absorbed and
re-radiated. Much of this re-radiation that is eventually absorbed by the
atmosphere as infrared heat radiation.
Having presented some of the evidence for
global warming, we now need to know and understand the technicalities of the 'Greenhouse
Effect'.
-
The burning of oil and
other fossil fuels is believed to be contributing to the 'Greenhouse
Effect' or
global warming.
-
The Earth's average
temperature depends on the net input of energy from the Sun and the
energy re-radiated from the Earth's surface.
-
Water vapour and carbon dioxide
are the principal greenhouse gases that absorb radiation
from the Sun and maintain an Earth temperature suitable to maintain
life.
-
This greenhouse effect is vital
for life on Earth !!! It is neither too hot or too cold and the
ambient temperatures of planet Earth allows a huge variety of life-forms
to co-exist at this distance from the sun and with the particular
composition of the Earth's atmosphere..
-
HOWEVER,
it is believed by most scientists that the increasing levels of
carbon dioxide are causing more of the Sun's radiated energy to be retained in
the Earth's atmosphere than previously by the mechanism described above.
-
This is referred to as an
anthropogenic effect - an environmental impact or pollution
due to human activity!
-
Greenhouse gases include
water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and some
artificial chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
-
So, it isn't just carbon dioxide gas
that is causing global warming, water vapour also absorbs IR and
gases like methane too, in fact lots of chemicals in the
atmosphere from human activity can absorb IR radiation.
-
With more energy in the
atmospheric weather systems, we may get more storms, wetter weather,
more climate extremes e.g. more severe drought in places.
-
The effects
are complex and its VERY difficult to predict what might happen!
-
There is also concern
about rising temperatures of the oceans and the increase in acidity due
to more carbon dioxide dissolving in the oceans.
-
Carbon dioxide is a weakly
acidic gas and delicate ecosystems can be affected by a lowering of the
pH e.g. the complex biodiversity of a coral reef.
-
A change in temperature can
also have a negative effect and there is evidence of species migrating
and spreading as sea temperatures change, even slightly.
-
Apart from burning fossil fuels, there are also
other
factors which may indirectly increase global warming by NOT
reducing carbon dioxide levels.
-
Greenhouse gas |
Relative measure of the infrared absorption |
% contribution to
greenhouse warming |
water
vapour H2O |
1 |
36-72 |
methane
CH4 |
7 |
9-26 |
carbon
dioxide CO2 |
24 |
4-9 |
ozone
O3 |
? |
3-7 |
- Although carbon dioxide is the main
contributor to global warming 9apart from water vapour), other gases
can significantly contribute to global warming.
-
Methane (CH4) is a powerful
greenhouse gas is produced from animal farming in the digestion system
of farm animals like cows, and from animal waste decomposition with
anaerobic bacteria.
-
Methane is also produced by
decomposition of organic matter (e.g. waste food) in landfill sites.
-
Again, methods of managing landfill
sites to reduce the release of methane into the atmosphere.
-
In some cases, the methane formed is
collected and burnt to power a small electricity generating system.
-
Sources of carbon dioxide
other than burning fossil fuels.
-
Deforestation for farming
and timber, cutting down large tracts of forest is removing plants that
are absorbing carbon dioxide in photosynthesis.
-
Not only that, clearing
forests by burning is adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
-
Microorganisms are also
producing carbon dioxide when they decompose dead wood, though this is
recycled via plant and algae photosynthesis.
-
However, burning fossil
fuels at the current rate, is still the biggest contributor to rising
carbon dioxide levels, but scientists are doing their best to try to fix
the problem and restore the balance of the carbon cycle!
See also
Biodiversity, land
management, waste management, maintaining ecosystems - conservation
gcse biology revision notes
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4C (f) What is our 'carbon footprint' and ways of reducing it
to minimise
global warming
-
Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel
burning, and other gases
including methane, water vapour and CFC's absorb the re-radiated
lower frequency infrared energy from the Earth's surface and so warming the
atmosphere, rather like a greenhouse allows the sunlight in but not
out. The effects are predicted
to be dramatic e.g. rising sea
levels as polar ice melts causing flooding in low lying land,
more energy in the global weather system leads to more frequent
violent weather patterns etc. etc.
-
There is considerable
uncertainty as to what might actually happen, but the consensus
amongst scientists is that fossil fuel burning is raising the global temperature
by a small, but not insignificant amount.
-
Important definition: The carbon
footprint is the total amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases emitted over the full life cycle of a product, service or event.
-
This isn't just about fossil fuel power stations, we are talking
about the energy involved in producing and using consumer goods, road
vehicles, methods of farming, fertiliser production etc. etc. i.e.
anything involving the use of energy!
-
Some of the many sources of
our carbon footprint
-
Reminder - the carbon footprint is the total amount of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted over
the full life cycle of a product, service or event.
-
The carbon footprint can be reduced by reducing emissions of carbon
dioxide and methane by switching to 'greener' energies supplies e.g.
solar panels, wind turbine, hydroelectric etc.
-
Other actions to reduce the carbon footprint include
reducing energy conservation, carbon capture and storage, carbon taxes and licences, carbon off-setting, including through tree planting
- trying to achieve carbon neutrality – zero net release.
-
BUT, problems of reducing the carbon footprint include
eg
-
scientific disagreement over causes and
consequences of global climate change,
-
lack of public information and education,
-
lack of government support e.g. aiding developing green technologies
with subsidies,
-
'us' not making less energy consuming lifestyle changes,
-
economic considerations:
-
greener economies are
initially more expensive.
-
poorer countries lack the
finance to invest in greener energy resources - richer countries can
take the lead, but other countries need help!
-
incomplete international cooperation
and agreement on carbon emission limits..
-
Any increased efficiency in any
process to use less energy produces less waste will help.
-
Governments can tax (i) companies or
(ii) you as an individual for activity producing greenhouse gases like
carbon dioxide e.g.
-
(i) subsiding green energy
resources until the unit cost comes
down
-
(ii) increased car tax on heavy fuel vehicles,
less flying, saving energy in the home - insulation, turn the heating
down a bit!
-
Carbon off-setting involves buying
carbon credits by companies or individuals to reduce carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere e.g. planting trees to remove carbon dioxide by
photosynthesis.
-
Some of these points are discussed in
more detail below.
-
What
more can we do
about it?
-
i.e.
how can we reduce even more our 'carbon footprint' to reduce global
warming?
-
Reduce the
amount of fossil fuels we burn in power stations, but the
international community struggles to come to an agreement over this
issue and the huge, and fast growing economies of India and China are
demanding the building of large numbers of fossil fuel power stations
(in 2006 China was starting to build one every week!).
-
'Green'
alternative renewable energy resources can be more exploited,
but not without problems e.g.
-
wind turbines -
weather dependant
-
wave
power - subject to storm damage
-
hydroelectric power, a large
scale alternative energy supply
-
-
damming the exit
from a valley or canyon, but who wants their valley flooded!
-
a large tidal
barrage across a river estuary, but what about
environmental-ecological effects, and possible silting up.
-
photovoltaic cells -
depends on intensity of sunlight and varies from country to
country, through the day and the seasons
-
solar power panels in roofs etc.
- comments as above!
-
all
reduce acid rain pollution and CO2 production by using less
fossil fuels.
-
Many are
good for domestic and small communities but only nuclear power and
large scale hydroelectric power schemes are
suitable for large scale energy production for the highly populated
countries with large industrial economies.
-
There is much work still to
be done to improve the efficiency of these schemes. Alternative
technologies do not come cheaply at first including the above,
but the more they are commercially developed, the lower the unit
cost becomes to the consumer.
-
Like 2., nuclear power is another option that does not produce carbon dioxide
and is suitable for large scale power generation, but there are real
public fears about the safety of nuclear power generation 'fuelled' by
the consequences of the nuclear power plant accident
at Chernobyl, in the Ukraine in 1986. It is extremely costly to build
nuclear power stations and there are added extra long term costs in
decommissioning nuclear power stations, safely processing the waste
and safely storing the residual radioactive waste for hundreds to
thousands of years.
-
Recent ideas
include 'carbon capture and storage', that is storing the CO2 from fossil fuel power stations
underground in rocks under pressure e.g. in exhausted oil and gas
wells or some other form of deep underground storage.
-
Ideally reducing carbon
dioxide release into the atmosphere while still using fossil
fuels, but I don't know any details or how feasible it is?
-
Personally I'm quite sceptical
about this method, quite large amounts of energy will be needed
to 'capture' the carbon dioxide and compress it into some
storage area, but we shall see !.
-
Use less
electricity and heat energy from fuel combustion by being careful
of its use e.g. increase home insulation and more efficient electrical
appliances like 'low energy' light bulbs.
-
Burning wood is
sustainable and an example of carbon neutrality (a net zero
carbon footprint) and the CO2 formed on its combustion is
recycled via photosynthesis, BUT ...
-
(i) it does not burn cleanly
- the smoke is quite polluting,
-
(ii) its
energy density is low (heat energy released per mass of fuel),
-
(iii) no good for large scale power generation.
-
Using alternative fuels
like hydrogen (no CO2 formed) and carbon neutral fuels
based on biomass like ethanol, biodiesel etc.
See 9b.
Biofuels & alternative fuels,
hydrogen, biogas, biodiesel
-
Scientists do come up
with some other interesting ideas e.g.
-
Much of the
photosynthesis in oceans is done by phytoplankton in the upper
layers of the ocean. One of the essential minerals these plants
need to photosynthesis is an iron. It has been suggested that
seeding parts of the ocean with a soluble iron compound will
promote the growth of plankton and absorb more carbon dioxide
via photosynthesis. However, although in principle a good idea,
you can't control which plankton grow and some of them are
toxic. These blooms of phytoplankton may become so 'thick' so
that in lower layers of the oceans, microorganisms decompose
them, using up oxygen and killing most aquatic life in the
vicinity!
-
Developing 'greener'
less polluting public transport systems to reduce the number of
private cars on the roads, particularly in cities and other busy
urban areas.
-
Economic policies like carbon
taxes and licences to encourage using green energy, putting a
premium on using fossil fuel energy,
-
Unfortunately although there is
lots of good science and technology available to reduce our carbon
footprint, in reality its never that simple !
-
Global dimming.
-
This makes the predictions about global warming even more uncertain.
-
As the earth warms up, more
water vapour can exist in the atmosphere.
-
The more cloud that is formed in the upper atmosphere the more
sunlight is reflected, so less radiated energy reaches the Earth's
surface, leading to the opposite of global warming.
-
It has been
suggested that cloud formation could be encouraged by seeding the
atmosphere with crystals to promote cloud formation.
-
It is ironic
that the vapour trails of aircraft, with their heavy use of fossil
fuels, actually contribute to global dimming as well as to global
warming at the same time!
-
The effect of global dimming was noticed
in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York's World Trade Center
Twin Towers in 2001.
-
All
aircraft were grounded in the USA and many parts of the world for several days
after the attacks and
sunlight gauges showed a small but abnormal increase in sunlight levels
reaching the Earth's surface.
-
It is believed that
small (fine) solid particles like soot/carbon or ash in the atmosphere can cause global dimming
because they form the nuclei of water condensation producing the fine
water drops of clouds and this reduces the amount of sunlight that reaches the Earth’s surface. I'm not sure if the
particulates disperse a small amount of the sunlight directly?
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4C
(g) More on data graphs, global warming & consequences
of climate change?
Just playing around' with graphs and posing myself some
questions !
 
Data Graphs,
Global Warming and
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change
Notes and possible class
discussion points
The carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere is
slowly rising due to the burning of fossil fuels. Theoretically this leads to
global warming and inevitable climate changes. BUT, are the current climate
changes due to 'man's activity'? i.e. the so-called anthropogenic effect, or, is
burning fossil fuels just adding to climate changes that would have happened
anyway?
The consensus of the scientific community is that burning fossil fuels
at the current rate is contributing directly to global warming and the
subsequent climate changes have important consequences, particularly economic
and other effects on communities around the world. However, there is debate as
to how much of the current climate change is due fossil fuel burning and the
climate change.
Effects are extremely variable, and frankly, not very predictable
e.g. some areas of the world are suffering heat waves, others have extra
torrential rain and catastrophic flooding, in some areas of the Andes in South
America, the average climate temperature has gone up 5o leading to
rapid melting of glaciers that years later reduce the amount of fresh water
available in the summer but other places show little change. Unfortunately, you
can selectively pick the data to fit your belief! Not good science!
Over the
past 150 years the global temperature has increased by about 1o,
which doesn't seem very much, but it isn't wholly understood what the
consequence of this might be? Also, is the rise accelerating? All I can do is
present some of the evidence and many points for discussion.
I've done my best to sift
data and ideas but not all websites are to be trusted, and I'm no
expert in this field, so there are lots of ? marks on this page!
There is a list at the end of good general resources of more ideas, facts, theories etc. but
some are quite technical in places. So I hope these revision notes
on climate change and global warming should prove useful for the
NEW AQA GCSE chemistry,
Edexcel GCSE chemistry & OCR GCSE chemistry (Gateway & 21st Century) GCSE (9–1),
(9-5) & (5-1) science courses.
EXTRA Graphs 3 and 4: Mean Global Temperature variation from
1850-2005
-
Data
source - East Anglia University, Climate Research Unit:
-
The data is
based on both atmospheric and oceanic temperatures.
-
The
purple
line is the average global temperature of 14oC for
the period 1961-1990 and is used by some research groups as the
baseline for calculating the so-called temperature anomalies
plotted below. Essentially the temperature anomaly here = mean
global temperature(1961-1990) - 14o. Other research
groups use different baselines and different calculation
methods, but they all agree that the Earth is warming up.
-
My thanks to
Mike Salmon of the Climate Research Unit of East Anglia
University, England, for taking the trouble to explain temperature anomaly
data to me.
-
1998, 2002
to 2006 were the 6 warmest years on record, at least from 1850
anyway, and 11 of the warmest years have occurred in the last
12. This definitely indicates we are in a warm period, though on
a short timescale compared to 'geological time'.
-
Although the
atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising steadily, as
is the quantity of fossil fuels burned, in cannot be said that
the average global temperature has been steadily rising. In fact
it shows considerable fluctuation. The temperature tended to
fall from the 1940's to the mid 60's, so a new ice age was being
predicted in the early 1970's.
-
However the consequent trend in
rising temperature is now leading to predictions of 'excessive'
global warming and its potentially dire consequences.
-
However, it should
be also noted that Earth has cooled a little since 1999.
-
I've
explained the theory of the 'Greenhouse Effect' or 'Global
Warming' on the Section 4.
Oil
Notes
page!
-
Data
source East Anglia University, Climate Research Unit:
-
The
temperature anomaly graph is a good statistical way of showing
the trends i.e. a positive (+) value means warmer than a
negative (-) value.
-
The
purple
trend line is based on the polynomial function in Excel, it
might not be the real statistical truth BUT its independent of
human prejudice!
-
There was a
significant rise from 1900 (or earlier?) until the early 1940's,
then there was a small decrease until 1964, but after that the
temperature is steadily rising, which is the worrying feature.
-
You can see
that from 1950 there is on average a steady rise in
temperature despite the regular fluctuations and it is this
later temperature pattern that leads most scientist to believe
that global warming is a significant threat
Further graphs
(5-7), which I haven't see elsewhere, but they seem to me to
reinforce the case for global warming due to fossil fuel combustion.
The graphs may seem to do strange things at times i.e. the graph
lines loop round, but this is because the absolute vales are plotted
against each other and not necessarily in strict chronological
order. However, roughly speaking, you go from 1850 on the left to
2003 on the right.
EXTRA Graph 5 The temperature
anomaly variation with carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion
Graph 5 shows on
average, that, as more fossil fuel is burned producing more carbon
dioxide, the average global temperature is rising, albeit somewhat
erratically!
This is a statistical
correlation graph for 'sceptics', NOT the usual chronological graph
that you find on the internet.
It shows a clear statistical
correlation between global warming and the CO2 released
from burning fossil fuels
EXTRA Graph 6 The temperature
anomaly variation and carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere
Graph 6 shows on
average, that, as the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere rises, the average global temperature is rising.
This is a statistical
correlation graph for 'sceptics', NOT the usual chronological graph
that you find on the internet.
It shows a clear statistical
correlation between global warming and the concentration of
atmospheric CO2.
EXTRA Graph 7 The variation of air
carbon dioxide concentration with carbon dioxide from fossil fuel
burning

Graph 7 shows on
average, that, as the amount of fossil fuel burned increases, so
does the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - a very
unambiguous graph!
This is a statistical
correlation graph for 'sceptics', NOT the usual chronological graph
that you find on the internet.
It shows a clear statistical
correlation between CO2 from burning fossil fuels and the
concentration of atmospheric CO2.
EXTRA Graph 8 The growth of the
total population of the world
Graph 8 Shows the growth of
world population (in millions) from 1.26 billion in 1850 to 6.71
billion in 2008. Graph 8 is similar shape to the graphs for the
increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Graph 1) and the
increasing amounts of fossil fuels being burned (Graph 2).
I'm not suggesting that
the two are automatically related, but its worth bearing in mind
that oil based fertilisers have helped increase food production
dramatically and of course 'fuel' 'consumer society'. Increases in
standards of living and better medical healthcare worldwide mean
that more people are surviving so the population is steadily
growing.
So what happens when oil production begins to decrease?!
Can the rise in population be sustained? Must the population then
decrease by choice, war, plague, global catastrophe etc.???? or do
we all grow more food in our garden using organic methodology? (My
wife's solution! who is generally far more sensible and practical
than I am, and I'm not being patronising!).
TOP OF PAGE
and sub-index
4C    (h) Further
environmental, social and
economic discussion points - a brainstorm bullet
points of global warming consequences!
The Inter-governmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) states:
'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level.'
'Most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations12. This
is an advance since the IPCC's conclusion that "most of the
observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have
been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations".
Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of
climate, including ocean warming, continental-average
temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns'
-
Some of
the first points made are NOT on the GCSE syllabus, but
unfortunately, they are very relevant to the current 'heated'
debate on what causes the current global warming. Incidentally,
there is no dispute (as far as I know?) in the opinion that the
Earth is currently warming up.
-
Over the
past 2 million years the Earth has passed in and out of ice
ages. In terms of the paleoclimatological record we are
currently in an inter-glacial period. So, will fossil fuel CO2
induce global warming to override the historical pattern?
-
Two of the
major obstacles to good predictions to climatology are accuracy
of data (improving) and the fact that changes in climate can be due to
changes from what happened several or hundreds of years ago, the
great 'systems' of the Earth can only change very slowly (we
hope?).
-
You can miss
out the next two bullet points if you want BUT ... ???? The
three Milankovitch Cycles
are to do with the input variation of solar radiation onto the
Earth's surface and are considered to be major factors affecting
the increase/decrease of glaciations of the Earth's surface.
-
The
eccentricity of the Earth's orbit changes over a 100,000
year cycle. The Earth's orbit around the Sun is not
perfectly circular, but is slightly elliptical and changes
over a 5% range from a narrower to a wider ellipse. This
means that the Earth - Sun distance is smaller/greater
leading to an increase/decrease in the intensity of solar
radiation reaching the Earth.
-
Currently the Earth's spin axis is 23.5o
with respect to a vertical line to the plane of its path of
its elliptical orbit around the Sun and this causes the
change in the angle the sunlight hits the Earth's surface,
causing changes in the sunlight intensity and length of day
which produces the seasons. However this angle changes over
a 41,000 year cycle from 21.5o to 24.5o
so changing the way the solar radiation is distributed over
the Earth's surface and so changing weather patterns and
their consequences.
-
The 3rd
Milankovitch factor is the precession of the Earth's
spin axis. The spin axis 'wobbles' and precesses around
from one side to another over a period of about 23,000
years.
-
As
consequence of the interaction of the three Milankovitch cycles,
it is believed, and backed up by certain data, that the glacial
cycles last about 100000 years and the current interglacial ('warmer period')
started about 18000 years ago, but within the 'big cycle' there
are cycles and sometimes the effects will combine or cancel each
other out producing a very complicated pattern of events which
can be plotted to some extent from analysis of ancient ice core
data. However, the question till begs, 'will increase in fossil
fuel burning override the Milankovitch factors'?
-
Despite the
mention of Sun spot cycles affecting our climate, and despite the
fact that it does affect the total solar radiation reaching the Earth,
there is no credible scientific evidence yet that sun spots affects our
climate significantly if at all.
-
On a short
term basis, huge volcanic eruptions of ash clouds can produce
mini-ice-age effects which last for several years after the
event. The distribution of fine ash clouds can directly block
out sunlight or cause more cloud formation which reflects
sunlight. Either way, global temperatures will fall due to this
'dimming effect' and long term effects may be more than we
recognise, but there is no recognisable pattern in the
geological record.
-
The Earth is
about 5o cooler than it was 20000 years ago, but it
was coming out of the last ice age, and warming up in the 'great
climate cycle', so this in not unexpected in principle.
-
The current
prediction from the IPCC report (Inter-Governmental Panel on
Climate Change) based on the work of thousands of 'credible'
scientists, is for a one degree rise in average global
temperature over the next century. It doesn't sound much BUT it
involves an enormous amount of energy which drives the
ocean and atmospheric systems. See the IPCC
quotes at the start of this section.
-
One
consequence is rising sea levels due to thermal expansion of the
oceans and the melting of the polar ice-caps, but which is the
more significant effect?
-
How much of
the extra CO2 will be absorbed by the ocean or used in plant
photosynthesis? Is there a significant time lag? Will it have
any significant effect at all?
-
Do the dips
in fossil fuel usage e.g. in the 1930's and 1980's correspond
with a temperature fall?
-
Will small
countries such as the UK make any impact on the situation if
their 'carbon footprint' is decreased? especially as China is
bringing on-stream a large fossil fuelled power station each
week?
-
Do we have
the right in the developed western economy (e.g. in Europe/USA)
to expect less developed countries in the East to show restraint
in burning fossil fuels as they try to develop
-
Wouldn't it
be a good idea if the UK reduces fossil fuels for (a) setting an
example or (b) other very different reasons e.g. (i) less
dependent on gas/oil supplying countries who may be politically
unstable and over control the price, (ii) less need for the very
controversial nuclear power, (iii) conservation of a valuable
chemical resource for non-fuel use e.g. drugs, plastics and
other materials. (a) is a moral-philosophical altruistic
attitude, (b) is about self-interest, so why not combine the
two?
-
Business
opportunities due to climate change e.g. if the UK becomes
warmer there will be more vineyards in southern England. However
the 'warming up' is reducing the skiing tourist industry in
Scotland and the Northern Pennines as less snow falls and sticks
around, though manufacturers of artificial snow equipment are
doing well.
-
Ecological
changes and their consequences e.g. as the temperature warms up,
species tend to move and occupy more northern regions. If the
winters are not as severe e.g. less frosts, insect species
harmful to plants may not be killed in the same numbers
increasing their risk of harming crops. South East may become
warmer and drier, so water supplies will be affected and it is
an area which is predicted to have the largest number of new
houses built in the next decade.
-
A selection
of actions that can be taken to reduce our 'carbon footprint' is listed on the
Section 4C Oil Notes - Carbon
Footprints and I'm
sure many more ideas can be added.
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Multiple Choice Quizzes and Worksheets
KS4 Science GCSE/IGCSE m/c QUIZ on Oil Products (easier-foundation-level)
KS4 Science GCSE/IGCSE m/c QUIZ on Oil Products (harder-higher-level)
KS4 Science GCSE/IGCSE m/c QUIZ on other aspects of Organic Chemistry
and
3 linked easy Oil Products gap-fill quiz worksheets
ALSO gap-fill ('word-fill') exercises
originally written for ...
... AQA GCSE Science
Useful products from crude oil
AND
Oil, Hydrocarbons & Cracking
etc.
...
OCR 21st C GCSE Science
Worksheet gap-fill C1.1c Air pollutants
etc ...
... Edexcel GCSE Science
Crude Oil and its Fractional distillation
etc ...
... each set are interlinked, so
clicking on one of the above leads to a sequence of several quizzes
[SEARCH
MY WEBSITE]
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Phil Brown 2000+. All copyrights reserved on revision notes, images,
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revision study notes for 14-16 school chemistry AQA Edexcel OCR IGCSE/GCSE
9-1 chemistry science topics modules for studying the graphs of CO2 ppm
concentration versus year showing the rise of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere, graphs of temperature versus time, what is the greenhouse
effect causing climate like global warming, what is a carbon footprint?, how
can we reduce our carbon footprint, what is global dimming? what causes
global dimming? gcse chemistry revision notes igcse revising KS4 science online fashion brands global
warming climate change,
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